Should you trade on the US Election?

Election Outcomes and Stock Market Performance

Do presidential elections determine the stock market’s performance? Is there a difference in returns between Republican and Democrat administrations? In today’s episode, Marcelo Taboada and Jackson Matthews break down the data from past elections and examine the long-term impact—or lack thereof—of political events on the stock market. How does human ingenuity shape market outcomes, and what lessons can investors learn from history?

Join Marcelo and Jackson as they dive into key historical periods, such as the Great Depression, World War II, and the COVID-19 pandemic, to explore how markets react in times of crisis and growth. They also address common misconceptions about the stock market and offer a fresh perspective on investment strategies in the face of political change.

Thank you for tuning in!

Investment Strategies in the Face of Political Change

• Introduction to election and stock market discussions (0:00)
• Common misconceptions about U.S. elections and market volatility (1:12)
• Understanding market resilience despite political changes (2:07)
• Long-term market trends through various U.S. elections (3:01)
• The effects of social media and news on investor sentiment (3:50)
• Discussion on Federal Reserve’s role vs. presidential impact on the market (5:00)
• Case study: The 2016 election and market predictions (7:15)
• Historical examples of market reactions during past elections (8:45)
• Insights from major historical events (Great Depression, WWII, etc.) (9:23)
• The stock market during FDR’s presidency (9:57)
• Economic resilience during Truman and Kennedy administrations (10:45)
• The Bush era and market behavior during 9/11 and the 2008 financial crisis (11:56)
• The importance of staying invested despite political events (12:45)
• Trends during Trump’s presidency and the COVID pandemic (13:46)
• Impact of macroeconomic events and technological advancements (14:32)
• Discussion on human innovation and economic recovery (15:05)
• Summary of key takeaways on long-term investing (17:02)
• Closing remarks and advice for investors during election years (17:50)
• Personal updates: Marcelo on fatherhood and Jackson’s engagement (18:02)

And so much more!

Chart: How much impact does the President have on stocks?