2025 Market Recap & 2026 Outlook

Diversification Won in 2025

In this episode, Keith Matthews and Lawrence Greenberg reflect on an extraordinary investment year and what it means for disciplined investors heading into 2026. They break down how tariff driven volatility, sharp drawdowns, and rapid recoveries defined 2025, yet ultimately rewarded those who stayed invested and globally diversified.

The conversation explores how Canada and international markets outperformed the U.S., how powerful market rotation reshaped returns, and why chasing forecasts or headlines would have been costly. Keith and Lawrence also address the growing debate around artificial intelligence, offering perspective drawn from past market cycles on how seasoned investors can benefit from innovation without speculation.

This episode is a must listen for investors who have built meaningful wealth and want clarity after a strong multi-year run. If you’re focused on protecting gains, managing expectations, and staying disciplined through the next market cycle, this discussion reinforces why sticking to a long-term plan remains the smartest move.

Tariffs, Volatility, and the Cost of Market Timing

• Setting the stage: why 2025 felt so uncomfortable despite strong returns (00:01:45)
• Tariffs, political uncertainty, and the sharp spring market sell-off (00:01:58)
• How markets rebounded rapidly, and why timing risk is so costly (00:03:55)
• The irony of 2025: regions targeted by U.S. tariffs delivered the strongest returns (00:03:14)
• Global asset class returns in Canadian dollar terms (00:04:24)
• Three years of exceptional equity performance and what that means for investors (00:05:00)
• The powerful rotation away from U.S. exceptionalism toward Canada and international markets (00:06:28)
• Why global diversification and factor exposure mattered more than predictions (00:07:22)
• Is AI a revolution or a bubble? Framing today’s debate with historical context (00:09:32)
• Parallels between AI enthusiasm and the dot-com era (00:10:48)
• Lessons from Cisco and Nortel: being right about technology vs. investment outcomes (00:12:55)
• How investors can benefit from AI without chasing individual winners (00:12:15)
• Why market forecasts consistently fail—and how bad predictions can hurt returns (00:15:48)
• Valuations, expected returns, and why future gains may be more muted (00:18:36)
• The “price of admission”: volatility, discipline, and long-term success (00:21:06)
• Final takeaways for 2026: stay invested, rebalance, and stick to your plan (00:20:46)

Be sure to subscribe on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. And feel free to drop us a line at lawrence@tma-invest.com or 514-695-0096 ext.112 Follow Tulett, Matthews & Associates on social media on LinkedIn, Facebook, and more! Follow The Empowered Investor on Facebook, LinkedIn, and Instagram