episode: 126

Staying the Course: Investing Through War & Uncertainty

March 22, 2026

Markets, Oil, and What It Means for Your Portfolio

In this episode, Keith Matthews and Jackson Matthews take a step back to help investors make sense of market volatility during periods of geopolitical tension, focusing on the current situation in the Middle East. They walk through what has been happening in the markets so far in 2026, starting with a strong beginning to the year followed by a noticeable pullback as uncertainty increased.
They explain how disruptions in oil supply are influencing inflation expectations and why this matters for interest rates, stock valuations, and the broader economy. By putting today’s events into historical context, they show that while every conflict feels unique in the moment, markets have consistently demonstrated resilience over time.

The conversation also challenges the instinct to react or make sudden portfolio changes during uncertain periods. Through real data and long-term evidence, they highlight how trying to time the market often leads to weaker results, especially when investors miss key recovery days. Instead, the focus remains on maintaining discipline, staying invested, and following a clear long-term plan.

Overall, this episode is a reminder that while short-term uncertainty is unavoidable, long-term success in investing comes from consistency, diversification, and the ability to stay grounded when markets become volatile.

Why Patient Investors Win in Volatile Markets

Introduction to the episode and Jackson Matthews’ role at the firm. (00:38)
Overview of recent geopolitical conflicts and their impact on investors. (01:46)
Market performance in early 2026: strong start followed by correction. (03:25)
Peak-to-trough declines across major global indices. (05:00)
Why markets are reacting: oil supply shocks and inflation fears. (06:27)
The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz and global oil flow. (06:50)
Inflation implications and potential central bank responses. (09:17)
Risk of stagflation and economic slowdown scenarios. (10:27)
Economist expectations: recession probabilities and inflation outlook. (11:00)
Historical analysis of 19 military conflicts and market performance. (12:24)
Average market returns and drawdowns following geopolitical events. (13:00)
Why markets tend to recover despite uncertainty and conflict. (14:02)
The myth of timing the market during crises. (15:59)
Evidence against tactical asset allocation strategies. (17:13)
The impact of missing the best days in the market. (20:32)
Importance of staying invested during volatile periods. (22:11)
Long-term investing discipline and portfolio strategy. (23:34)
Final takeaway: control behavior, stay diversified, and think long-term. (24:08)

Thanks for listening!

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