A Note On the 2016 US Presidential Election

Canadian, U.S. & European equities rose following Donald Trump’s surprise election to the presidency of the United States on November 8. This rise in equities was largely unexpected considering earlier warnings of how a Trump win would create volatility and negatively affect the markets. Many were even predicting a Brexit styled sell-off. Below is the performance of our TMA model portfolios on Wednesday, November 9^th (the day after the election):

100% fixed income            – 0.47%

30% equity, 70% fixed       + 0.03%

50% equity, 50% fixed       + 0.34%

65% equity, 35% fixed       + 0.59%

75% equity, 25% fixed        + 0.81%

100% equity                         + 1.17%

The 2016 US election is yet another example of how actual markets sometimes move counterintuitively in the aftermath of geopolitical events. We are also reminded of how investment noise from the media and even conversations with friends and family in periods of uncertainty can lead investors astray.

So what will we continue to focus on? You probably have a clear idea of that by now:

1. Helping you set clear long-term planning goals
2. Ensuring diversification across multiple asset classes and asset-class regions
3. Ensuring structure and discipline in your portfolio process
4. Taking a long term view

Reflections on returns and presidential elections

Please find attached Presidential Elections and the Stock Market detailing the history of market returns over the last 15 presidencies.

Also attached is a short video by Vanguard entitled The Presidential Election and Your Portfolio.

US Presidential terms are four years long. Your investment portfolio has been structured to last a lifetime. As always, we are here for you, so please do not hesitate to contact us should you have any questions.